The NFL Draft has always been an exciting event for fans and teams alike, but this year is even more intriguing than usual. With the return of prolific running back Bijan Robinson from the University of Texas, the value of the position is being questioned and discussed. While Robinson is widely considered to be one of the best players in this year’s draft, the question remains: is he worth a top 10 pick?
Robinson is a unique talent, boasting a combination of size, speed, and elusiveness that is rarely seen in a running back. He is expected to be the first running back taken in the draft and has been projected to go as high as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 19th overall. But with the current trend of devaluing the position and a very deep running back class this year, Robinson could find himself waiting longer than expected to hear his name called.
The value of a running back has been decreasing over the last decade due to the increased reliance on passing attacks and the shorter career lifespan of a running back taking punishing blows. The last running back to be taken in the top 20 was Saquon Barkley second overall in 2018 and the last time a running back was taken in the top 10 was Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 by the Dallas Cowboys. Even the Cowboys are now hesitating at taking a running back in the top 10, as Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones said, “It is hard for these guys to play 10 years at a real high level.”
Despite these facts, some experts still feel that Robinson is worth a top 10 pick due to his elite talent. NFL Network draft expert Daniel Jeremiah said of Robinson, “Some people think, oh, analytics will kill him. If he were to go in the top 10, he would not get laughs around the league because people know how good this guy is.”
The answer to the question of whether or not Robinson is worth a top 10 pick will depend on how teams value the running back position in this year’s draft. The decisions that teams make in free agency this offseason will be a key factor in deciding how the draft plays out. Teams such as the Giants, Cowboys, Raiders, and Lions will all be making decisions regarding the running back position in free agency that could impact the value of Robinson.
No matter where Robinson ends up being drafted, it will be interesting to watch how NFL teams value the running back position in this year’s draft. Will they opt to go with the traditional route and devalue the position or will they recognize Robinson’s unique talent and make him the first running back to go in the top 10 since 2016? Only time will tell.
